把五星红旗插上月球的计划已经开始！7月12日，中国载人航天工程办公室公布了中国载人登月初步方案，计划在2030年前实现中国人登月，并将在后续建造月球科研试验站。上一次人类的足迹踏上月球已经是在足足51年以前了。1972年12月14日，美国阿波罗17号飞船搭载3名宇航员完成了最后一次载人登月后，从此再也没有人类登上月球。
这一次，如果中国宇航员成功登上月球绝对是“人类的又一大步”，建造月球科研试验站就意味着我们人类不仅登上了月球，而且将常驻月球。与此同时，美国航天局正在紧盯中国的进度。在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友问：如果中国成功登月，会激发美国重返月球吗？我们看看各国网友的回答。
哈佛专家罗伯特•福斯特的回答
NASA has always been very interested in lunar missions and Mars missions. NASA exists for exploration, but NASA cannot determine the projects it can carry out. This is determined by the President and Congress.
美国宇航局一直对月球任务很感兴趣，也一直对火星任务很感兴趣，NASA的存在就是为了探索，但是NASA并不能决定它可以开展的项目，这是由总统和国会决定的。
So the more accurate question is - if China lands on the moon, may this increase Washington's interest in lunar missions? The answer is, perhaps.
所以更准确的问题是——如果中国登陆月球，这可能会增加华盛顿对月球任务的兴趣吗?答案是，也许吧。
In the 1960s, lunar landing did not receive widespread support. But under the influence of McCarthyism, almost everyone is worried about standing on the side of "communists". The United States and the Soviet Union are competing for hegemony in many aspects to prove which form of governance is more advantageous. For the United States, what is important is that they are seen by the world as clearly superior to the Soviet Union. The Russians are relentlessly pursuing the United States in space, and the United States urgently needs a victory, so they put all their eggs in the basket of landing on the moon.
在20世纪60年代，登月并没有得到普遍支持。但麦卡锡主义的影响之下，几乎所有人都担心自己站在“共产主义者”一边。美国和苏联在许多方面都在争夺霸权，以证明哪种治理形式更优越。对美国来说，重要的是他们被世界视为明显优于苏联的国家。俄国人在太空上对美国穷追不舍，美国迫切需要一场胜利，所以他们把所有的鸡蛋都放在了登月的篮子里。
Today, the competition between the United States and China is not as fierce, and they are not mortal enemies. They are interdependent.
今天，美国和中国之间的竞争没有那么激烈，而且他们不是死敌。他们相互依赖。
Although I believe that China, as a strong space competitor, will enhance the level of discussion about space, which may make it a topic of interest to politicians, I do not think this is enough to restart the space race. But if China seriously suggests establishing a permanent base on the moon, it will begin to attract attention in Washington.
虽然我认为中国作为一个强大的太空竞争对手会提升关于太空的讨论水平，因此可能使其成为政治家感兴趣的话题，但我不认为这足以再次启动太空竞赛。可如果中国认真建议在月球上建立永久基地，那么它将开始在华盛顿引起关注。
The United States wants to take the lead in everything. So, if someone really wants to compete to win this award (becoming the most advanced space country), then the United States will participate more to maintain its top position.
美国想要站在一切事物的领先地位。所以，如果有人真的要竞争夺走这个奖项(成为最先进的太空国家)，那么美国将更多地参与以保持其第一的地位。
So, if China wants to land on the moon and make a statement to the world (see, we are advanced, we have landed on the moon), China will start saying, "We want to establish a permanent work base on the moon, and by 2040, the staff will continue to rotate, so the United States may be very anxious because the United States does not want to become second place in such an important competition
所以，如果中国想登上月球向世界发表声明(看，我们是先进的，我们登上了月球)，中国开始说“我们想要在月球建立一个永久的工作基地，到2040年工作人员不断轮换，那么美国可能会心急如焚，因为美国不想在如此重要的比赛中成为第二名。”
德国网友罗迪尼的回答
China is 99% likely to keep its promise, while the United States is unlikely to do so.
中国有99%的可能信守诺言，美国的可能性不大。
This is a photo of 2 newspapers in 2004.
这是2004年两家报纸的照片。
Let one is about China’s moon project. China Lunar Exploration Project was announced in Feb 2004, and it was already in implementation stage. China was planning to have a moon orbiting satellite within 3 years, a soft-landing on the moon in 6 years, and have moon dirt sample taken back by a robot before 2020.
让我们来谈谈中国的月球计划。中国探月工程于2004年2月宣布，目前已进入实施阶段。中国计划在3年内拥有一颗绕月卫星，在6年内实现月球软着陆，并在2020年前由机器人带回月球土壤样本。
By the end of 2020, in December, Chang-e 5 returned with 1731 gram of moon dirt.
到2020年底，也就是12月，嫦娥五号携带1731克月球尘埃返回。
Below are the moon projects announced by the United States, Russia, Japan, and India.
下边是美国、俄罗斯、日本和印度宣布的月球项目。
The US was going to land on the moon again in 2015, and establish an international moon base no later than 2020.
美国曾计划在2015年再次登月，并在2020年之前建立一个国际月球基地。
Russia was going to have a test launch of its latest moon landing ship.
俄罗斯将对其最新的登月飞船进行试射。
India was going to launch its first unmanned moon ship Chandrayaan-1 in 2008.
印度计划在2008年发射其第一艘无人月球船“月船一号”。
Japan was going to eastablish its moon base in 2025, and send robots there.
日本计划在2025年将其月球基地向东迁移，并向那里派遣机器人。
Chinese newspaper reported moon projects from 5 countries in 2004.
中国报纸报道了2004年来自5个国家的月球计划。
So far, only China managed to keep on schedule.
到目前为止，只有中国能够如期完成任务。
So when China says that it’s people will land on the moon before 2030, it’s highly possible that it knows exactly where it is now, and how fast its moon project will go.
因此，当中国说它的人民将在2030年前登上月球时，它很可能确切地知道它现在的科技水平在哪里，以及它的月球项目将以多快的速度进行。
美国网友克拉克的回答
Good for them. We did it 54 years ago, so why can’t China do it? Any country that can develop the technology is free to land on the Moon under international agreements.
为他们祝福。我们54年前就做到了，为什么中国不能做到呢？根据国际协议，任何能够开发这项技术的国家都可以自由登月。
There will come a time when going to the Moon and back will not be a big deal anymore. Someone has to be the second to get there.
总有一天，往返月球将不再是什么大事，必须有人在第二次到达那里。
海外网友戴维•杜鲁姆的回答
From American points of view, it sounds like quite late when the USA as done it in 1969 and subsequently a few more times.
从美国人的角度来看，1969年美国已经完成了登月壮举，并在后来又去了几次，2030年听起来已经很晚了。
For the Chinese, it is still a significant achievement and milestone if they can achieve it by 2030 since no other country has done it after the USA. Not even the Russians. Not only for the Chinese, by any standard, it will still be a significant achievement. Imagine for the 21st century, even the USA is having difficulty to repeat what they had done. This has lead to some scientists believing that human technology capabilities has actually peaked in 1960–1970 and we are now trying to regain such ability.
对于中国人来说，如果他们能在2030年前实现这一目标，这仍然是一个重大成就和里程碑，因为除了美国之外，没有其他国家做到过这一点，甚至俄罗斯人也没有。不仅对中国人来说，无论以何种标准衡量，这仍然是一项重大成就。想象一下，在21世纪，即使是美国也很难重复他们的所作所为。这导致一些科学家认为，人类的技术能力实际上在1960-1970年达到了顶峰，我们现在正试图恢复这种能力。
With the vast advancement of technology, why is USA now also struggling to return to the moon? As a person without much scientific knowledge, this is very puzzling. What is missing? Is funding the issue?
随着技术的巨大进步，为什么美国现在也在努力重返月球？作为一个没有太多科学知识的人，这是非常令人费解的。缺少什么？资金问题吗？
美国网友贾克•威廉姆斯的回答
Good LUCK to them. Of course, we have ALREADY DONE SO 50 years ago, and are planning on doing so AGAIN by the end of the decade, with the purpose of settin up a permanent BASE on the Moon. But the Chinese are welcome to make their own efforts, and MAYBE, one day, we can COMBINE our efforts to mutual benefit. We TRIED that with the Russians at the international space station, but apparently, that has all fallen flat. Let us HOPE that together, the US AND China can use ‘space exploration and development’ as a means of ‘tempering’ and/or ‘tamping down’ disagreements here on Earth, and to mutual benefit. We can but hope.
祝他们好运。当然，我们在50年前就已经做到了，并计划在本世纪末再次实现登月计划，目的是在月球上建立一个永久基地。但我们欢迎中国人做出自己的努力，也许有一天，我们可以共同努力，实现互利共赢。我们在国际空间站与俄罗斯人进行了尝试，但显然，一切都失败了。让我们希望，美国和中国能够共同利用“太空探索和发展”作为“缓和”和/或“消除”地球上分歧的手段，并实现互利。我们只能寄予希望。
As it appears, China will be the first nation to put men on the moon.
看起来，中国将成为第一个将人类送上月球的国家。
…
Notes:
注意事项：
1. There is overwhelming evidence that NASA did not put men on the moon in 1969, nor in the subsequent missions. To paraphrase the head of the Russian space program; “We sent lunar orbiters over the supposed landing sites repeatedly, and there’s nothing there.” Believe what you may. The vast bulk of the world considers the United States to be thieving, lying, and mischievous rogue nation. As time moves on, peoples throughout the globe question the supposed actions and accomplishments of the United States. Indeed, this is a debatable subject, but this is not the place for that debate.
1.有压倒性的证据表明，美国国家航空航天局在1969年没有将人类送上月球，在随后的任务中也没有。套用俄罗斯太空计划负责人的话；“我们多次派遣月球轨道飞行器飞越所谓的着陆点，但那里什么都没有。”相信我，世界上绝大多数人都认为美国是一个偷窃、撒谎和恶作剧的无赖国家。随着时间的推移，全球人民都在质疑美国的行动和成就。事实上，这是一个有争议的话题，但这不是辩论它的地方。
2. NASA plans to put a progressively diverse crew on the moon this decade. It will be on a spacecraft that superficially looks like the Apollo spacecraft, but uses technologies not available during the 1960’s. This crew will attempt some trivial “science experiments”, perform some “crowd pleasing” antics, and return home (supposedly) reinvigorated and proud United States.
2.美国国家航空航天局计划在本十年内将越来越多样化的宇航员送上月球。它将搭载在一艘表面上看起来像阿波罗飞船的航天器上，但使用了20世纪60年代没有的技术。这个团队将尝试一些琐碎的“科学实验”，表演一些“取悦大众”的滑稽动作，然后回到（据说）充满活力和自豪的美国。
3. The Chinese strategy in space exploration is for long-term objectives, and is proceeding in a systematic step-by-step progression. It is boring, but methodical. The Lunar outpost will consist of members selected from the Global South, and will be the beginnings of a long-duration colony as a step towards (already planned) Mars colonization efforts.
3、中国的太空探索战略是长期的，是有系统、有步骤的。这很无聊，但很有条理。月球前哨站将由从发展中国家选出的成员组成，这将是一个长期外星探索的开始，作为（已经计划好的）火星殖民努力的一大步。
4. You can expect that the Chinese WILL visit the supposed Apollo landing locations. They will do so in 3D, high definition color and 7G technology. What they will discover will be broadcast to the world. If they find nothing, and that is what is expected, the implications will be extraordinary.
4.你可以预料，中国人将参观所谓的阿波罗着陆点。他们将采用3D、高清色彩和7G技术。他们将发现的东西将向全世界广播。如果他们一无所获，而这正是意料之中的事情，但其影响将非同寻常。
美国网友马克思•琼斯的回答
The Chinese are very patient. They are not like the US and Russians who rushed into space, then realised that they were wasting money on things that don’t matter, and then abandon their programs. If the US had taken a sensible approach to visiting the moon, they would have taken a much slower and more permanent approach.
中国人很有耐心。他们不像美国和俄罗斯人那样冲进太空，然后意识到他们正在把钱浪费在无关紧要的事情上，然后放弃了他们的太空项目。如果美国采取明智的方式访问月球，他们应该采取更缓慢、更持久的方式。
The US is planning to go to the moon in 2025, but China is a turtle to the US hare, and will go when they are ready, rather than try and race the US to the moon. We see this with a lot of Chinese programs that are designed to catch up with the west. There is not attempt to leap ahead or even leap and catch up. Which is why China is making such good steady progress.
美国计划在2025年登上月球，但中国对美国来说是龟兔赛跑，他们准备好了就会去，而不是试图与美国竞争登上月球。我们在许多旨在追赶西方的中国项目中看到了这一点。他们稳扎稳打，毫不浮躁，没有人试图超越，甚至没有人试图追赶，这就是为什么中国正在取得如此稳步进展的原因。
克里斯特•桑德琳的回答
Yes, the landing of Chinese astronauts on the moon will be closely monitored by NASA funders.
是的，中国宇航员登陆月球将引起美国航天局资助者的密切关注。
China is constantly upgrading its development of sustainable energy and raw materials; China is becoming increasingly confident in dealing with other countries; Its ability to project power on a global scale is increasing day by day; China's public statement regarding the moon as a strategic highland; Its series of unmanned landers. All of these indicate that China is likely to make lunar landing a serious long-term goal.
中国正在不断升级对可持续能源和原材料的开发;中国在与其他国家打交道时越来越自信;它在全球范围内投射力量的能力日益增强;中国将月球视为战略高地的公开声明;它的一系列无人着陆器。这些都表明，中国很可能将登月作为一个严肃的长期目标。
With this possibility, the United States will have no choice but to participate more. If this is not done, the risk is that this country may ultimately make a decision on ownership of lunar resources for everyone, relying on the advantage of being one step ahead.
有了这种可能性，美国将别无选择，只能更多地参与进来。如果不这样做，风险在于，这个国家，最终可能会凭借先人一步的优势，为所有人做出月球资源所有权的决定。
Considering the above events and trends, the following is a scenario that I have come up with:
考虑到上述事件和趋势，以下是我想到的一个场景:
As China's strength increases, it chooses to re-establish the broad principles of political sovereignty that have been the foundation of its worldview for centuries. China's cautious and successful space program has equipped it with the necessary technical and organizational capabilities to project power into low Earth orbit and beyond. China will announce its withdrawal from the Outer Space Treaty, claim sovereignty over the surface of the moon, and establish a "lunar defense identification zone" above it. The surface of the moon is mainly a mineral rich area that has been identified by the probe. Other countries have decided to follow suit and seize lunar land; It is no longer possible to prevent its sovereignty claims.
随着中国实力的增强，它选择重新确立几个世纪以来构成其世界观基础的广泛政治主权原则。中国谨慎而成功的太空计划使其具备了必要的技术和组织能力，可以向近地轨道及更远的地方投射力量。中国将宣布退出《外层空间条约》，中国将宣称对月球表面拥有主权，并在其上方建立“月球防御识别区”。月球表面主要是探测器已经确定的矿产丰富的地区。其他国家决定效仿，抢占月球土地;阻止其主权要求已不再可能。
